Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics

Welcome to the Web site for Introduction to Modern Bayesian Economics by Tony Lancaster. This Web site gives you access to the rich tools and resources available for this text. You can access these resources in two ways:

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Important Announcement:

There is a bug in the WinBUGS syntax interpreter that may in some circumstances lead to incorrect interpretation of the following syntax: 

... + (b - c) ... may be interpreted as - b + c

... - (b + c) ... may be interpreted as b - c

... - (b - c) ... may be interpreted as - b - c

Users should check their models for the existence of these structures: essentially a bracket including a sum or difference of random quantities with a negative sign either inside or outside the bracket. It is perhaps most likely to occur in complex non-linear regression models. If suspicious, try rewriting the expression in an equivalent form but without the bracket, then running a few iterations to check it was being evaluated appropriately.

This is clearly very serious, and we are trying to get a patch sorted out as quickly as possible. In the meantime users are advised to check any models they use for the occurence of this particular structure.